The incidence of autism has risen spectacularly in recent years. In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now estimates that 1 in 68 children has autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Twenty years ago, it was about 1 in 10,000. California’s autism rate increased by five times over a single decade. I recognize that the ASD umbrella covers a huge range of capabilities and disabilities. For simplicity, I’ll use “autism” as a general term. But this column is not really about autism. Because autism is not the only affliction whose incidence has soared. So have allergies. Asthma. Diabetes. Obesity. High blood pressure. Dementia. The list goes on and on. And so we look for causes. And when we find one, we sink our teeth into it and refuse to let it go.
The autism debacle That happened when a few people noticed that the increase in autism roughly corresponded to the increase in vaccinations for measles, mumps, and rubella (commonly known as “German measles”).. British medical researcher Andrew Wakefield claimed a cause-and-effect link between these vaccinations and autism in a 1998 article in the Lancet journal. Although his research was later discredited -- Lancet condemned it as “utterly false” --- many parents still refuse to have their children vaccinated. So thousands of children got measles and mumps; some died; some suffered permanent disabilities. The respected Annals of Pharmacotherapy called Wakefield’s article “the most damaging medical hoax of the last 100 years." Opponents of vaccination blamed a preservative in the vaccine which contains traces of mercury. Superficially, it’s a reasonable argument. Mercury poisoning caused Minimata disease in Japan, brain damage among mercury miners in Spain, and affected aboriginal tribes on Canada’s Wabigoon River system. But autism rates continued to rise even after mercury was removed from the vaccines.
Correspondence doesn’t prove anything Correspondence, you see, does not equal cause. Other societal changes also correspond with the rise in ailments like autism. Wireless transmission, for example -- especially cell phones and laptops. Worldwide electrification. Fluoridation. Population growth. Depletion of ocean fish. Ozone in the stratosphere. A graph of any of these factors will show, more or less, the famous “hockey stick” shape associated with the rise of atmospheric carbon-dioxide since the industrial revolution. Which, by the way, in March exceeded 400 parts per million for the first time in at least 25 million years. Which of all those factors would you choose as a cause of autism? Statistically, correspondence merely affirms that two things have been happening together. One may have caused the other, or vice versa. Or both may result from an entirely different factor.
You are not just you Which brings me back to autism. A variety of recent studies have linked autism with bacteria in human gut. In one sense, this is a step forward. It recognizes that humans are whole bodies. Autism is not just mental -- it can also involve ears, muscles, internal organs and, yes, bowels. Around 1000 species of bacteria live in the human intestine. In total, I have at least as many bacteria in and on my body than I have cells with my DNA. Apparently people with autism have a different blend of bacteria -- what the scientists term “flora” -- in their guts. There, though, the evidence becomes confusing, Some studies claim that antibiotics reduced symptoms of autism by controlling specific bacteria. Other studies argue that the indiscriminate use of antibiotics in early childhood, for minor ear or throat infections, permanently distorted the child’s flora and invited autism. From what I read, the studies have a very limited base. A couple of dozen patients, in one case. Just one patient in another. Another rule of statistics -- don’t generalize from individual cases. Even if you’re right. It feels like thalidomide all over again. If you’re anywhere near my age, you’ll remember thalidomide. In the 1960s, doctors prescribed thalidomide to pregnant women as a harmless treatment for morning sickness. Then babies began being born with missing or malformed limbs, digits, ears… The drug’s manufacturer defended its product, of course. Just as tobacco companies attacked research linking cigarette smoking to lung cancer. The deformities must be coincidence. The research was based on too few cases…. True enough. The first whistleblower, an Australian gynaecologist, based his findings on just three cases of limb and bowel malformations. But he was right. Whether the theory connecting gut bacteria with autism eventually proves correct or not, a significant segment of the population will accept it as gospel. My barber has already told me all about it. Beware of leaping to conclusions. ******************************************************** Copyright © 2016 by Jim Taylor. Non-profit use in congregations and study groups encouraged; links from other blogs welcomed; all other rights reserved. To send comments, to subscribe, or to unsubscribe, write jimt@quixotic.ca ********************************************************
YOUR TURN
Last week’s column about the four brains we carry around inside each skull did not produce much mail. 
Isabel Gibson called the column, “An interesting summary of the mess in our heads. I guess we could all use some prefrontal support now and again, but what to do about/for folks who don't even seem to have one?”
Sally Stoddard was more specific: “It occurs to me that the reptilian brain perfectly describes Donald Trump.”
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TECHNICAL STUFF
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PROMOTION STUFF…
 Ralph Milton has a new project, called Sing Hallelujah – the world’s first video hymnal. It consists of 100 popular hymns, both new and old, on five DVDs that can be played using a standard DVD player and TV screen, for use in congregations who lack skilled musicians to play piano or organ. More details at www.singhallelujah.com Ralph’s HymnSight webpage is still up,  http://www.hymnsight.ca, with a vast gallery of photos you can use to enhance the appearance of the visual images you project for liturgical use (prayers, responses, hymn verses, etc.)  Wayne Irwin's “Churchweb Canada,” an inexpensive service for any congregation wanting to develop a web presence, with free consultation. <http://www.churchwebcanada.ca>  Isabel Gibson’s thoughtful and well-written blog, www.traditionaliconoclast.com  Alva Wood’s satiric stories about incompetent bureaucrats and prejudiced attitudes in a small town – not particularly religious, but fun; alvawood@gmail.com to get onto her mailing list.  Tom Watson writes a weekly blog called “The View from Grandpa Tom’s Balcony” – ruminations on various subjects, and feedback from Tom’s readers. Write him at tomwatso@gmail.com or twatson@sentex.net
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