Sunday November 20, 2022
Two news stories juxtaposed themselves this past week.
In the first story, the eight-billionth human was born somewhere on Wednesday, according to an estimate by the United Nations.
Maybe not precisely on Wednesday. It might have happened on Tuesday. Or Thursday. But one of the 385,000 babies born during those three days was the eight-billionth member of the human race.
Just 12 years ago, there were only seven billion of us. A century ago, only two billion.
We have, in other words, grown like mould.
That famous “hockey stick” graph of greenhouse gases is duplicated, almost exactly, by the growth of human populations.
Yet we get all upset about one statistic and avoid the other.
The COP-27 conference in Egypt brought together 190 countries; 60 heads of state; about 35,000 representatives of environmental and agricultural organizations. They discussed climate change adaptation, climate finance, decarbonisation, agriculture, and biodiversity.
They did not, from what I can see, issue any news releases about over-population. Because that implies the unthinkable -- reducing the number of living humans.
Unthinkable alternatives
“Unthinkable” because, on the one hand, it implies someone deciding which people deserve to live. And which, don’t. Some races, perhaps -- Hitler’s solution. Some ages -- elderly parasites no longer wanted. Or anyone with a disability. Or with a criminal record…
It’s also “unthinkable” because our economic system is based on endless growth. As far as I know, no economist, no organization, no nation, has yet developed a workable economy based on decline.
Bluntly put, we cannot imagine a situation where we don’t have enough youth and workers to pay off the mortgage we’re bequeathing them.
And yet that day will come. It has to.
The World Council report on the eight-billionth birth offered some forecasts.
Population growth is not stopping, but its rate of growth is slowing. It will take about 40 years for world population to reach 10 billion. By the end of this century, it should level out at slightly under 11 billion.
Then it will start to decline -- whether or not our economic systems are ready for it.
Population growth has been fuelled by technological advances. Medicine largely eliminated pandemics. Life expectancies soared. Industrial and agricultural development provided the basic necessities of life for far more people.
There are fewer deaths. The 385,000 babies born today have better chances of living full lives and having children of their own than any of their ancestors did. Access to clean water alone has reduced the incidence of life-threating diseases.
Fertility rates
The second factor in the population equation is fertility rates. Traditionally, low-income countries have had higher fertility rates than richer countries. Lots of grandchildren equals a poor society’s pension plan.
But recent fertility rates have been declining, everywhere.
That was the second news story that caught my attention.
An international study analyzed data from 57,000 men in 53 countries. They found that the average global sperm concentration declined from an estimated 101.2 million per milliliter in 1973 to 49 m/ml in 2018—a drop of 51.6%. Total sperm counts decreased by 62.3% over the same period.
This will not come as news to men of my generation! But it means that fewer and fewer babies will be born.
Previous research had been limited to men in North America, Europe, and Australia. The new study found that men in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are experiencing similar sperm declines.
Other studies have found that sperm are not only fewer, but also less vigorous. They don’t swim as strongly; they’re not as desperate to get to that waiting ovum.
Demographers take a particular interest in fertility rates because these factors drive what will happen to global populations in future.
Even relatively small adjustments in fertility-rates accumulate, explained one researcher. Suddenly a country can end up with 100 million people more -- or fewer -- than expected.
Don’t blame ‘Mr. Fix-it’
I’m sure some will read these two stories as evidence that a “higher power” of some kind -- a super-intelligence that many will call “God” -- has chosen to intervene, to bring rampaging population growth under control.
I’m grateful if declining sperm counts do lead to declining populations. I just don’t think God is doing it. The current research suggests man-made chemicals are to blame.
We are responsible for unchecked population growth, just as we are for unchecked greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the biblical creation story, God told us humans “to go forth and multiply…”
We learned only too well to multiply. Tragically, we never learned to divide.
*******************************************************
Copyright © 2022 by Jim Taylor. Non-profit use in congregations and study groups encouraged; links from other blogs welcomed; all other rights reserved.
To send comments, to subscribe, or to unsubscribe, write jimt@quixotic.ca
********************************************************
Your turn
“You’re a brave man to comment on the latest U.S. election,” Ruth Buzzard wrote, “especially with so many American readers. But I suspect that they all voted Democrat. I cannot see any MAGA Republicans subscribing to your columns.
“I think Biden will go down in history as one of the most successful Presidents ever. In his quiet and sometimes doddering way he quietly let Trump self-destruct. He brought in policies that people liked, like increases in health care and forgiveness of student loans. He got things done.
“I think that most Americans were tired of the drama and divisiveness of Politics. They voted for quiet efficiency and national unity instead. I think they’re telling their politicians to scrap the divisive rhetoric and get on with the job they were elected to do. I hope so.”
Jane Wallbrown is a U.S. citizen now living in India: “I'm an avid political person and financial contributor. I disagree with your basic thesis that the mid-term elections were all about Trump. It IS true that he picked friends rather than qualified people to run and he picked a lot. What has left me extremely happy about this election is that the American people seemed to use their heads rather than falling for Trumpish positions.
“I have been frustrated with the true Republicans and their silence around Trump. Now I think they were wise to let the American people decide. We do have a sense of what America is that is ingrained into us in all sorts of ways from the time we're born. Fairness, integrity, basic common sense, hard work, willingness to agree to disagree with others. The New Englanders basic view of what it meant to be an American really influenced our journey.
“Enough. I was just so delighted with the results. I had begun to lose faith in the USA.”
Vera Gottlieb wouldn’t share Janie’s renewed optimism: “As for the elections in the US, frankly, I couldn’t care less. I don’t understand why so many on this planet continue in awe of a nation that is so destructive, that pretends to have other nations’ well-being at heart when it is the exact opposite. We need to realize that, even without the U.S., the world continues to rotate.”
One of my lines referred to Trump’s “right to rule”. Mirza Yawae Baig replied, “What amuses me (not in a funny way) is the use of the word – Rule, Ruler, Ruling, etc. referring to leaders of so-called democratic countries. I say so-called because if they are indeed democratic, how can they have one man (usually a man) who is called ‘Ruler.’. Kings rule. But not Presidents, Prime Ministers, etc. I am not criticizing you. Just a comment on how this word is used and what therefore it implies about the unconscious process behind our beliefs about our nations.”
Bob Rollwagen wrote before Trump’s announcement that he planned to run again: “We should not forget that Trump has never had the popular majority of the others in an election. Each election the gap grew. If he runs this time, the trend seems to point to it being his biggest loss. This coming Tuesday’s Blamefest by Trump should be interesting, if not humorous.”
Jim McKean wrote after The Announcement: “Waking up the morning after The Announcement tells all of us one thing. Trump isn't interested in anything except himself. Any political operative would seek other's opinions before announcing a run for office. All this is about a self-absorbed person trying to suck all the oxygen out of the Twitterverse.”
Isabel Gibson: “The various incompatible election analyses I have seen remind me of the old saying that General Hillier used to quote: ‘The first report from the battlefield is wrong. The second report is wrong. The third report is wrong. The fourth report is wrong. The fifth report is wrong. The sixth report is wrong.’
“I suspect we are still within the time period encompassed by those six reports -- and I suspect that the answer, if/when it comes, is unlikely to be a singular one.”
Steve Roney: “I tend to agree with you that a hostility towards Trump in about half the electorate had a lot to do with the Republicans falling short of their expectations in the recent midterms. I think people are tired of chaos, and crave normalcy. They voted for Biden in 2020 hoping to get it, and did not; but they do not believe they will get it by going back to Trump. For them, it was a vote between a rock and a hard place.”
Two weeks ago, I wrote about prejudice in Canada. Brad Lee shared his experience: “I grew up in greater Vancouver, of Chinese descent. I am third generation Canadian. I moved to Penticton in 1987. While growing up in Vancouver, I was often subjected to varying degrees of racial prejudice. I was often counselled to walk away, and ignore it.
“However, I have a history of volunteering, such being a race director for the Penticton Triathlon Club, a race director for Ironman Canada, and other events. I found that in my volunteering, and ability to do well in certain sports, I had crossed over the racial prejudice line, to almost be viewed as white. The interesting thing was that at some social events, some of my ‘friends’ that I volunteered with on a regular basis, made comments, thinking them as teasing jokes. In those occasions, I viewed the situation as ‘If I do not say anything, it will continue". So would say something to the affect of ‘that is not acceptable’, or ‘please stop saying such statements. ‘ In each case, it had led to a change in behaviour.
“Today, as you have stated, her in Canada, sadly, we still see this. I will admit it is improving. And Canada continues to increase in racial diversity. I like to comment to some of my clients, how I enjoy going to IKEA in Vancouver. I can sit for 2-5 minutes checking out furniture, and see a myriad of diverse cultures and races, all of us enjoying an outing to IKEA.”
******************************************
TECHNICAL STUFF
If you want to comment on something, write me at jimt@quixotic.ca. Or just hit the ‘Reply’ button.
To subscribe or unsubscribe, send me an e-mail message at the address above. Or subscribe electronically by sending a blank e-mail (no message) to sharpedges-subscribe@lists.quixotic.ca. Similarly, you can un-subscribe at sharpedges-unsubscribe@lists.quixotic.ca.
You can now access current columns and seven years of archives at http://quixotic.ca
I write a second column each Wednesday, called Soft Edges, which deals somewhat more gently with issues of life and faith. To sign up for Soft Edges, write to me directly at the address above, or send a blank e-mail to softedges-subscribe@lists.quixotic.ca
And for those of you who like poetry, please check my webpage .https://quixotic.ca/My-Poetry If you’d like to receive notifications about new poems, write me at jimt@quixotic.ca, or subscribe yourself to the list by sending a blank email (no message) to poetry-subscribe@lists.quixotic.ca (If the link won’t work, please let me know.)
********************************************
PROMOTION STUFF…
To use the links in this section, you’ll have to insert the necessary symbols. (This is to circumvent filters that think some of these links are spam.)
Wayne Irwin's “Churchweb Canada,” is an inexpensive service for any congregation wanting to develop a web presence, with free consultation. http://wwwDOTchurchwebcanadaDOTca. He set up my webpage, and he doesn’t charge enough.
I recommend Isabel Gibson’s thoughtful and well-written blog, wwwDOTtraditionaliconoclastDOTcom. She also runs beautiful pictures. Her Thanksgiving presentation on the old hymn, For the Beauty of the Earth, Is, well, beautiful -- https://www.traditionaliconoclast.com/2019/10/13/for/
Tom Watson writes a weekly blog called “The View from Grandpa Tom’s Balcony” -- ruminations on various subjects, and feedback from Tom’s readers. Write him at tomwatsoATgmailDOTcom (NB that’s “watso” not “watson”)
ALVA WOOD ARCHIVE
The late Alva Wood’s collection of satiric and sometimes wildly funny columns about a mythical village’s misadventures now have an archive (don’t ask how this happened) on my website: http://quixotic.ca/Alva-Wood-Archive. Feel free to browse all 550 columns