This column was written before the results of the American election were known. It’s a period piece, in that sense, a look back at how things were. 

            Would I write a different column now? I don’t know. I would be more hopeful, but not necessarily optimistic. 

            I’ve deleted my musings about potential outcomes.

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            As I write these words Thursday evening, the situation remains unclear. Trump has, of course, declared himself a winner. Because he’s incapable of imagining himself as a loser. 

            The Senate seemed to be staying Republican; the House, Democrat. Regardless of who wins the White House, that means four more years of stalemates.

            My guts churn as I consider the implications for Canada. The elder Trudeau used the analogy of a mouse sleeping next to an elephant. “No matter how friendly and even-tempered the beast,” he said, we are “affected by every twitch and grunt."

            At times like this, I try to take a more distanced view – even though objectivity is not necessarily comforting. Trauma is always personal. When my mother died, I felt astonished that Vancouver’s buses continued running normally.

            History, as Arnold Toynbee taught, moves in great waves over  decades, centuries, even millennia.

            In the sweep of history, I expect, Tuesday’s election will be seen as  little more than  a blip in an extended curve that chronicles of the decline and fall of the American empire.

            Not that long ago, America was invincible. It had by far the world’s most powerful military machine – on land, sea, air, and space. Its economy was equally dominant – no other nation could compare to its Gross Domestic Product, its standard of living, its television and movie industry…

            That it fell far behind in education and health care for all its citizens seemed irrelevant.

            Especially when its arch-foe and nuclear nemesis, the mighty U.S.S.R., fell apart in 1991. The U.S. was now the world’s sole superpower.

            It still is, but only militarily. According to Jeffery Sachs, The U.S. currently has 800 military bases around the world, 6,000 nuclear warheads, is currently involved in 13 shooting wars, and has a military budget that exceeds the next ten top nations combined.

Insider’s viewpoint

            Jeffery Sachs has access to far more facts and figures than I do. He is an economist, professor of Political Economics and International Development at Columbia University, and has been a special advisor to the last two UN Secretary-Generals. So I’ll let him make the case for America’s decline.

            Sachs told a conference on multilateralism held at the Vatican, “The U.S. was a dominant economic and technological power in the world for decades. This is no longer the case. It is still a powerful country economically and technologically, but it is no longer a dominant power. The European Union is a larger market, China is a comparable market, and the spread of technology is worldwide.

            “I’m sorry to say it -- it’s my country -- but this is an imperial power in decline.

            “We cannot have one country that is 4.2% of the world population, and 15% of world output, decide the international structure by which the other 96% of the world depend for their lives.”

            Forbes endorses Sachs’ analysis: “In 1960, U.S. GDP represented 40% of global GDP. By 2014, America’s economic contribution had been cut in half. Today, U.S. GDP contributes only 22% of the world’s economic output.”

            Investopia goes farther: “When economies are assessed in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the U.S. loses its top spot to China. In 2019, the U.S. economy…was at $21.44 trillion, while the Chinese economy was $27.31 trillion.”

            In other words, I tell myself, don’t get too worked up about this election. It’s not forever. This too shall pass.

            Sarah Kendzior wrote in the Globe and Mail, “The United States is a broken country … Dangerous times are coming, full of disease, violence and instability – regardless who wins. We will live, and die, as Americans, one nation, united in fear – of each other, of our government, of our future…

            “There are worse things to lose than an election.”

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Copyright © 2020 by Jim Taylor. Non-profit use in congregations and study groups encouraged; links from other blogs welcomed; all other rights reserved.

                       To send comments, to subscribe, or to unsubscribe, write jimt@quixotic.ca

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YOUR TURN

The first letter came from Marcel Opaz: “An excellent article. We left Chile in 1975 and have lived in Canada ever since. I have relatives in Chile who celebrated late into the night the historic win.

            “Just one note to your article, I believe the plebiscite that defeated Pinochet was in  October of 1988, not 1990. However, one could argue the dictator never relinquished power (until he was arrested in England in 1998) and still had influence on President Patricio Aylwin.

            JT: Marcel is correct; the plebiscite that Pinochet lost was in 1988. But he clung to the office of President until he finally stepped down in 1990.

Michael Jensen’s son Darius was in Chile at the time of Pinochet’s ouster. Darius wrote, “I was there in Santiago when they voted Pinochet out of office.  Oh the joy!  Masses of people in the streets, so much so that vehicles had a hard time finding a way through as people spilled off of the sidewalks onto the road itself. Parties for days afterwards. Random people giving hugs and kisses and a quick jig of a dance. A wonderful happy time to experience.”

Tom Watson wondered, “Your closing paragraph cites the British Guardian newspaper: ‘The vote in Chile is a beacon for the world.’ Will we be able to say the same thing when the votes in the U.S. are counted?”

Steve Roney wrote a long letter, and since I don’t have many other letters this week, I’ll include most of it: “Tracing the current troubles to the constitution does not seem right. I had a look at it online. It seems, as it exists currently, a rather ‘progressive’ document. It actually includes a constitutional ‘right to social security,’ a right to  free public education from pre-school to age 21, and a right to government health care. That’s more in terms of an activist government than is in the Canadian constitution.

            “One article of the constitution that looks possibly sinister is a widespread sanction against ‘terrorism,’ which would suspend other rights for those convicted of the offense. 

            “It also seems wrong to attribute the coup against Allende to his nationalization of the copper mines. This was the policy of the previous government as well. [The constitution says]

‘The State has absolute, exclusive, inalienable and imprescriptible dominion of all mines, including guano deposits [covaderas], metalliferous sands, salt mines, coal and hydrocarbon deposits and other fossil substances, with the exception of superficial clays, notwithstanding the property of natural or legal persons over the terrains in which they may be contained.’

            “Nor can US opposition to Morales or Chavez, or Allende, be attributed to their nationalizing the local oil and gas industries. As I have pointed out to you before, Mexico, Canada, or Saudi Arabia have also nationalized their oil and gas industries, without American opposition. 

            Why did the US intervene in Chile? To begin with, it is unclear to what extent they did. It seems natural, however, that they would be hostile on ideological grounds to a government that was openly ‘Marxist.’ There was indeed, as you say, the threat to American investments. And the Chilean economy was apparently collapsing, as we have seen in Venezuela recently; they might have argued it was on humanitarian grounds.

            “Why do the people of Chile right now want to scrap their constitution? The gesture looks symbolic, reflecting a general anger at elites that we are seeing elsewhere: in France, in Brexit, in the ‘populist’ supporters of Trump in the US. The people want to reassert that they are in charge.”

James Russell offered some counter-evidence: “Did you ever happen to read, Inside the Company:  A CIA Diary by Philip Agee?  I read it back in the mid-seventies when it first came out.  I can’t recall if there was any particular mention of Chile, but Agee was quite detailed about subversion of other South American governments in which he had a personal hand, and the corporate interests the CIA served.”

            James added thanks for the column, in general: “I hadn’t even noticed this truly hopeful event. I think the shenanigans in the U.S. have just about worn me out and I’m wandering in a daze waiting for them to settle.”

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TECHNICAL STUFF

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PROMOTION STUFF…

To use the links in this section, you’ll have to insert the necessary symbols. (This is to circumvent filters that think some of these links are spam.)

                       Wayne Irwin's “Churchweb Canada,” is an inexpensive service for any congregation wanting to develop a web presence, with free consultation. http://wwwDOTchurchwebcanadaDOTca. He set up my webpage, and he doesn’t charge enough.

                       I recommend Isabel Gibson’s thoughtful and well-written blog, wwwDOTtraditionaliconoclastDOTcom. She also runs beautiful pictures. Her Thanksgiving presentation on the old hymn, For the Beauty of the Earth, Is, well, beautiful -- https://www.traditionaliconoclast.com/2019/10/13/for/

                       Tom Watson writes a weekly blog called “The View from Grandpa Tom’s Balcony” -- ruminations on various subjects, and feedback from Tom’s readers. Write him at tomwatsoATgmailDOTcom (NB that’s “watso” not “watson”)

ALVA WOOD ARCHIVE

                       The late Alva Wood’s collection of satiric and sometimes wildly funny columns about a mythical village’s misadventures now have an archive (don’t ask how this happened) on my website: http://quixotic.ca/Alva-Wood-Archive. Feel free to browse all 550 columns.