This has been a summer of natural disasters. Some rain has finally come to B.C., but by the end of this summer, the province will have fought some 2000 forest fires. Smoke from those fires has spread across the prairies, into northern Ontario, even crossing the Atlantic to Europe. Just as smoke from fires north of the Arctic Circle, in Sweden and Siberia, drifted into Canada.
Greenland had its first forest fire -- ever.
Meanwhile, California had its worst wildfire season. In Greece, some residents chose to drown in the Aegean Sea, rather than to burn on land.
Fires rampaged in Australia. And an estimated half of the coral in the Great Barrier Reef died, from rising ocean temperatures.
At the other extreme, southern India had its heaviest monsoon in 100 years, displacing close to a million people. Floods ripped through almost any country you can name. Highways washed out. Cars vanished into sinkholes. Mudslides swept houses off their foundations.
But still some people deny that all this has anything to do with climate change. And certainly deny that humans had anything to do with it.
The facts do not lie
The facts do not lie. Seventeen of the hottest years in history have happened since 2000, the last 18 years,. Scientists putting together evidence from lake sediments and glacier cores say the earth hasn’t been this hot in 125,000 years.
The deniers do have some short-term arguments on their side.
Almost all the B.C. fires came from lightning strikes. Not human carelessness. And no one would argue that we humans control where lightning will strike.
The jet stream in the upper atmosphere didn’t follow its normal patterns.
Ocean temperatures at the Great Barrier Reef were affected by unusual patterns of the El Nino currents in the eastern and central Pacific.
All are therefore abnormal situations. Exceptions to the rule. Not something we can do anything about.
Except that the new science of chaos studies states that there are no exceptions. Exceptions only fail to fit our preconceived formulas. Instead of ignoring them, they’re what we need to pay attention to.
To put it bluntly, the exceptions ARE the rules.
The unpredictability of predictions
In fact, every one of this summer’s climate crises was predicted by the scientists. They said extreme weather patterns would increase as global temperatures rose, and they have.
There’s a huge misconception about predictability. You can predict a pattern; you can’t predict a specific.
Epidemiologists can calculate, beyond question, how many people will avoid heart attacks if they quit smoking. But they cannot predict that this individual will, or will not, have a heart attack.
No one can ever prove that something would have happened, if it didn’t.
The same with weather. Meteorologists can predict weather extremes, but not where they will strike. Or exactly when.
What we can do, what each of us can do, is to look for correspondences.
Correspondence by itself doesn’t prove anything. One factor is not necessarily the cause, and the other the effect. Correspondence says only that two or more factors are related.
Take energy use as an example. From the cave-dweller’s campfire to the wood stove of the farm family, the energy used per person has risen slowly over thousands of years.
Then suddenly, about 250 years ago, per capita energy consumption soared. My great-grandfather ran his farm with one horse power; I have 290 horsepower available to drive to the supermarket. That’s not including the power used by the appliances in my home. Or the power used to ship the market’s tomatoes from Mexico.
At the start of the Industrial Revolution, around 1760, the graph of per capita energy use squirts upwards -- the “hockey stick” pattern derided by climate change deniers.
So do a host of other graphs: human life expectancy, world population, fossil fuel production, herds of cattle and domestic animals … Along with average annual temperatures and carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere.
Even the El Nino episodes in the southern Pacific show a “hockey stick” pattern -- from every 50 years or so to every two or three years.
But there are no matching “hockey-stick” graphs for volcanos, sunspots, or planetary wobbles. None.
Human effects
I have to conclude that the underlying causes of this summer’s extreme weather are human.
Tragically, not even the David Suzuki Foundation is willing to state the obvious -- we have too many people, each using too much energy.
It’s not just about finding alternative energy sources. To bring all those corresponding graphs down, we either have to lower each person’s energy use, or we have to lower the number of persons. Period.
There are no other options.
Otherwise, 20 years from now, this summer of disasters may look like a picnic in the park.
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Copyright © 2018 by Jim Taylor. Non-profit use in congregations and study groups encouraged; links from other blogs welcomed; all other rights reserved.
To send comments, to subscribe, or to unsubscribe, write jimt@quixotic.ca
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YOUR TURN
Last week’s column, about a novel about a concert pianist dying of ALS, may have been difficult for some to read.
Still, Rachel Prichard wrote, “Thank you for that book recommendation. I want to point you in the direction of Being Mortalby Atul Gawande. This book is all about how we spend the last years of our life and I think it is so important that everyone should read it. http://atulgawande.com/book/being-mortal.”
I concur with Rachel’s recommendation.
Jean Hamilton also offered a book recommendation: “I had a similar experience with a book called One True Thingby Anna Quindlen. I picked it up from a pile of discards by a friend who was cleaning out an old house. It is a day-by-day account by a young woman who comes home to care for her mother who is dying of cancer. Unfortunately this is an experience far more of us have had or will have, and I highly recommend this book. Like Every Note Played,it pulls no punches.”
Tom Watson was the caregiver “for the last nine months of my wife Janice's life. My maternal grandmother spent the last nine years in bed -- I don't recall ever seeing her out of bed -- and my grandfather looked after her all that time. I did it for nine months; I have since wondered how in the world my grandfather did it for nine years. In my case, in contrast to my grandfather's experience, palliative care nurses and doctors were as close as a text message or phone call making that ‘I was never alone’ -- a valuable life lesson.”
Michael Jensen, too: “Yes, my wife and I read the book Still Alice and watched the movie. Painful but illuminating.
“My wife's mother, Genevieve, fell and needed constant care. Her five children decided to take turns providing care in her home where she wanted to be. Professionals came to bathe her, check medications, etc., until the last months when daily outings with her walker became too painful and exhausting. Food lost its flavour. Intense headaches prevented visiting with friends. It was painful for me to see this great lady (yes, my mother-in-law and I loved each other from the day we met) deteriorate in front of my eyes.
“We all knew that when she died she would be reunited with her husband and other loved ones, and suffer none of our earthly ills -- yet it hurt to see her lose control of body functions and waste away. We are here to experience the challenges and blessings of this earth. The Savior didn't say it would be easy; he said he would be there to comfort us. Genevieve and her family met this challenge and were rewarded with love and understanding.”
James Russell thought the column was “Timely, in that a friend told me just yesterday about having been recently to two assisted dying events -- one for someone with MS, which has some of the same grim inevitability of ALS, the other a dementia situation. And we have friends who are dealing with late-stage Parkinson’s and … and here we are all, getting older.
“I’ve been thinking for a while that we are living in times where more and more we will have to make real moral choices -- life-or-death ones where there is no ‘correct’ answer, no ‘look in the back of the book to see what you should have done’. And this at a time when actual training in practical morality (as opposed to dogma-whistling) is increasingly rare.”
Another writer, who preferred to remain anonymous, also picked up the euthanasia theme: “A long time ago I decided, and my wife concurred, that euthanasia was the way I would like to go. It depends, of course, on the courage it takes to commit suicide.
“I had a 96-year old aunt who prayed every day that she would die, but under the laws of the land, nobody would give her last rights. She finally died after all her organs gave out. She was a God-fearing person and it was sad to see her end.”
I mentioned our son dying of cystic fibrosis. I was visiting Tom and Marg Forgrave in Whitecourt, Alberta, when my wife received the diagnosis: Tom wrote, “We certainly remember you being at our place when you learned your son had cystic fibrosis. If I knew what I know now I would have reacted differently.
“I’ve been officiating at Memorial/Celebration of Life/Funeral services for more than 52 years now. I know that the families and others in attendance pay a lot more attention when I quote Romans 8:38-39, and the last few lines of the (New) Creed “In life, in death, in life beyond death ...” than to anything else I might say during the service.
“I’m glad you mentioned the Creed.”
Several people commented on Steve Roney’s letter, in last week’s e-mailing. Sandy Warren wrote, “A sincere thank you to Steve Roney for writing this enlightening letter, and to you for printing it in full. It is a valuable perspective and one not featured, if found at all, in the press. I appreciate this new way to see Mohammed bin Salman and his actions.
Dawne Taylor agreed: “An interesting and informative response from Steve Roney on Saudi Arabia.”
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TECHNICAL STUFF
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PROMOTION STUFF…
To use the links in this section, you’ll have to insert the necessary symbols. (This is to circumvent filters that think too many links constitute spam.)
Ralph Milton’s latest project is a kind of Festival of Faith, a retelling of key biblical stories by skilled storytellers like Linnea Good and Donald Schmidt, designed to get people talking about their own faith experience. It’s a series of videos available on Youtube. I suggest you start with his introductory section: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u6qRclYAa8
Ralph’s “Sing Hallelujah” -- the world’s first video hymnal -- is still available. It consists of 100 popular hymns, both new and old, on five DVDs that can be played using a standard DVD player and TV screen, for use in congregations who lack skilled musicians to play piano or organ. More details at wwwDOTsinghallelujahDOTca
Wayne Irwin's “Churchweb Canada,” an inexpensive service for any congregation wanting to develop a web presence, with free consultation. <http://wwwDOTchurchwebcanadaDOTca>
I recommend Isabel Gibson’s thoughtful and well-written blog, wwwDOTtraditionaliconoclastDOTcom
Alva Wood’s satiric stories about incompetent bureaucrats and prejudiced attitudes in a small town -- not particularly religious, but fun; alvawoodATgmailDOTcom to get onto her mailing list.
Tom Watson writes a weekly blog called “The View from Grandpa Tom’s Balcony” -- ruminations on various subjects, and feedback from Tom’s readers. Write him at tomwatsoATgmailDOTcom or twatsonATsentexDOTnet